Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Thoughts On Huckabee and Predictions on The Florida Primary

Blogging will be close to nothing till perhaps tonight. I am taking the day off with a group of people to call likely Huckabee voters in Florida. DIALING FOR MIKE!!!

Right now the election is too close to call. The latest Zogby poll released today shows a 4 point lead for McCain. I am not buying that yet. I think it is very very close. THe poll shows an interesting vote for Huckabee. By the way we are third with Rudy. A third place win would be significant since we have no ads running in that State. The internals of the Zoby poll shows among the youngest voters – those age 18-29, favored Huckabee with 51%, while Giuliani won 20%. As to the winner? My gut tells me McCain but we shall see .

Anyway if that youth trend I note above holds up that is very significant. The fact that Huckabee got 51 percent of Republicans in that age group is very telling. Are we seeing the future of the party? I will be pouring over the Florida exits laters tonight

I would love to see if they show up tonight.

So WHO do I want to win? Well course Huckabee but that will not happen. I am conflicted. John Mccain is my second choice and I much rather him than Romney. However for Huckabee it would be much better for a Romney win. He sort of sets the race equal again and we can chip into McCain's support int he States we want on Super Tuesday. This election cycle is strange.CW would indicate that McCain winning two states in a row would give him the big MO. We shall see.

However if Romney barely wins I am not sure how this can be called a major Victory that propels him to the nomination. I found this stunning from the Atlantic:

Romney's Major Florida Advantage 29 Jan 2008 05:51 am Mitt Romney's had an 8 to 1 television ad advantage in Florida... part of the reason why he's made the competitive. Heck, most of the reason he's made the race competitive has been his ads.

According to Neilsen, he's run 4,475 ads compared to John McCain's 470 through 1/22. McCain did not run a single ad until January; Romney ran more ads in September than McCain has run to date.

Good grief. Romney has spent $30,000,000 in FLorida alone!!!! Yet he is neck and neck with McCain. McCain we were told was going ot have trouble in Florida because no independents could vote. Well who is really in trouble here?

That being said I expect Rudy will drop out after tonight. MSNBC is reporting the signs are there.

Huckabee now lays out his grand Super Tuesday plan. The polls are good in many states. Plus there is a line of thinking that the Huckabee loss in Florida has been factored in people's minds in these states.

Winning Missouri where Huckabee was at this afternoon is a big part of it. I am going to get into two major Catholic Online Pieces on Huckabee that just came out later. They were pretty good ones. However engaging the Catholic vote in Missouri will be important.

More later back to phone calls

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