Sunday, January 20, 2008

Republican South Carolina Polls Show We Must Compromise on Immigration

To my non political reader do not fear. I shall be doing more Catholic posts today. However I am going to be doing three posts involving Huckabee, a overall look at the South Carolina Exit polls numbers(with a special look at the Catholic vote, and this current entry.

This current entry will deal with the issue of immigration. Full disclosure I am for comprehensive immigration reform. I have followed this issue for two exhausting years. However, I do try to look at his in a objective matter.

I think the South Carolina exit polls of last night's races shows that we must compromise on this issue. After two years we are getting no where on this within our party. It has not been a overall "vote enhancer" but looking at the last two years I would argue that taking the hard line position has cost us to lose votes. Let us look at the South Carolina Exit polls.

South Carolina is a very good state to look at as a snaphot of the very conservative base of the Republican party. I can't think much more of a perfect snapshot than South Carolina. This is where thge immigration issue has been HUGE. I am taking the data from the CNN exit polls that are located here.

Last night
Deport Them

Path to Citizenship

Temporary Worker

Now let me say that the hard line position after being on the front burner for 2 years inSouth Carolina, it is barely getting 50 percent of the voters. These figures are about where we were at two years. ago!!!! Almost 30 percent of Republican and Independents(that vote conservative and Republican almost all the time) voters in the most conservative state want Pathway!!!!

19 percent want Temporary worker. Which is a part of Comprehensive reform and opposed by the hardliners.In my experience with this issue people that are Temporary worker are open to Pathway also.

Now lets delve into the numbers:
Let us start with Huckabee. Huckabee went right on this issue to a certain extent. I think he largely did this to blunt Fred Thompson in South Carolina. However if you follow him on this issue you will notice that he appears to want to moderate. His view is very close to the Pence plan. That is everyone go back and you shall be back in weeks. Sort of set up tiny Ellis Islands for processing. I am against this because I think it is unworkable and a big waste of money. However it is out there as a compromise.

What did Huckabee do with these groups
Path to Citizenship- 31% Temporary Worker-23% Deport Them-34%

Now Huckabee did get the majority of votes from people that want to deport them all. However right behind it in a almost a dead heat he got 31 percent of the folks that want Pathway!!!!. In fact as to this cateogory and Temporary worker he comes in second right behind McCain!!!

I find McCain's numbers real interesting.
Path to Citizenship- 44% Temporary Worker-37% Deport them All-26%

Now the fact that people wanted Pathway in big numbers voted for McCain is not a surprise. However he got 26 percent of those that wanted to deport them all. The king of so called amnesty comes in right behind Huckabee on the hard line positon. Now this is significant because the people that are against any compromise threw the kitchen sink at McCain. As Pink Flamingo points out in this must read post IT’S ALL ABOUT TANTON & REVENGE.

May I suggest that when McCain get a 25 percent of the hardline folks that their allegance to this issue is weak. I find that the most telling thing of the exit poll.

Let us look at how the other top two people did
Path to Citizenship-12% Temporary Worker-17% Deport Them-15%

Path to Citizenship- 8% Temporary Worker-17% Deport Them-19%

This is the kicker to me. I highly suspect that the exit polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, and perhaps Michigan showed less support of a Hardliner position among Republican and Independents that are Conservative.

Once we get past Florida I am going to take a look at all exits polls on this that have been taken in the primaries and see where are we are at.

However at this point despite the worst name calling and horrible civil war on this issue within out party it appears nothing has changed. In the end we lost Hispanic vote in 2006. It appears that we have not gained vote by being perceived to be hard line on this issue nationwide. Republican voting is down and Democrat voting is up!!! The hardliner positon does not seem to be a winner. It s converts are few. We must compromise on this issue and come to a just, humane, and practical solution.


Anonymous said...

James, Tom had an opportunity to respond to the letter I sent to Mike Huckabee this morning. Here's the link.

Pass it around as you see FIT!


Also Tom commented after you did on Tito's blog. We see you everywhere ... this IS good!

James H said...

Wow that is powerful. I shall psot on this later and spread it. GOd Bless you indeed a poiwerful thing to do