Tuesday, January 15, 2008

My Michigan Predictions for Primary Night and Observations

Before the predictions , I will be very curious about one major thing. That is Republican turnout. Weather was horrible so turnout was down. However a third straight primary with low or much lower Republican turnout is a concern for the general.

Predictions-
Win- Romeny
Place-McCain
Show-Huckabee

I very much want a McCain win. First after Huckabee he is my second choice and I prefer McCain to Romney. Also a bad Romeny showing might take him out setting up more of a Huckabee.McCain dynamic. Also Huckabee would not have to contend with Romney's attack so much in the future states. I agree this is a must win for Romney

A nice solid third for Huckabee will be good. He spent no money and hardly no time in this state before last week. The fact he is competing there in an aggressive manner is good for me and I suspect the Huckabee campaign

A McCain upset onight would be huge.

Now as to South Carolina. Huckabee needs to win this state. In some sense a McCain non first place showing in Michigan perhaps helps Huckabee. Whoever wins this race has big time MO going into Florida. I believe that Fred Thompson could be put down by Huckabee here if he is aggressive. Thompson is going after Huckabee for sure.

Biggest Loser of the Night- RUDY
I think Rudy's game plan is just not playing out. I think it would have been beneficial to be in Michigan and the News cycle. True there is risk. But he has gone a week without being in the news hardly. It will get worse this week in South Carolina!!! I think people forget you are there and I am not eyeing a great wave of voter interest Rudy when the voters of Florida go to vote.

However I have been wrong before.

The State of the Huckabee Campaign-
Unless there is some big second or major upset tonight we have some problems. The conservative media is still against Huckabee. The fact that we caught on late means we are having problems putting together a get out the vote organization in these states. Because of that and the constant attacks I feel that Huckabee is having to keep going back to his base of religious voters to get votes to make up the for negatives from the media and the structural issues of his campaign.

I think at this point the campaign wanted to broaden its appeal. However the combination of the these primaries coming in quick succession and the all out assault on Huckabee as a "LIBERAL", and no money to respond to it in a massive way causes problems.

The good news is that I think South Carolina voters are a tad more realistic about what Republican Governors do in the South. I don't think they will not buy the "Huckabee is Jimmy Carter" charge that Rush and other are trying to paint Huckabee with.

This is one reason why I think perhaps Thompson's joining in on that shall have a ceiling. However the attacks are a opportunity to respond to these attacks and perhaps get the correct perception of Huckabee out there.

The Huckabee Campaign will be made to a large extent this week. Is it a must win? Well I think it is close. If it is a not a win Florida is a must win for the nomination. If he doesn't win there I think he stays in till Super Tuesday in order to acquire delegates and have some influence at the GOP convention in case well it is brokered. A possibility that I hate to think about.

Polls close in a about a hour so we shall have some results

2 comments:

Rosemary Bogdan said...

Very accurate predictions. I voted for Huckabee. I don't really understand the conservative media coming after him. Do none of them put the social issues on a high enough priority? They sound like they don't like his appealing to the common man, the working class. What's wrong with that? It really makes them look like the stereotypical conservative who doesn't care about the poor.

James H said...

Thanks

I think it is several issues. First I think they are very nervous about what I call the new Evangelical vote. THe new younger Evangelical voters are not just satifyed talking about Abortion and Gay marriage. THey have concern about the poor , stewardship of the environoment, lots of things. In a word it is becoming much like that Catholic vote Bush got in 04. Huckabee realizes that.

So now many of this voters that were only talked too about two issues are now viewed with fear because they have ideas on a broad range of issues

I also think a lot of conservatives forgot the religious vote was once a Reagan Democrat vote. That is working man. THey have ignored those concerns for too long and Huckabee being a Governor from a state where those challenges are present ID's with it

I agree with you it looks horrible. It will be interesting to see what happens down here. I think most SOutherners wil not buy that Huckabee is a democrat etc etc. They know reality.

Oh and Huckabee did not kiss the you know what of the conservative establishment. That annoys them to no end