Friday, January 18, 2008

Mitt Romeny Has A big Problem

I have felt that if something happened to Huckabee ( and we hope nothing does GEAUX SOUTH CAROLINA) that the great Huckabee nation would go to McCain. This was not based on anything scientific but just my observations. Why? Well it has nothing about him being Mormon or anything like that. It is the constant attacks by him and more importantly his surrogates in the conservative press. They look at McCain and see a kindred soul!!!

Jay Cost is someone I respect a lot. When he writes something I apy attention. He wrote a good article called Can Mitt Catch On? Before I return to the sick bed I wanted to excerpt this part

He has another potential problem.
Why is it that most primary candidates refuse to run sustained, intense negative campaigns? The answer is that everybody is basically on the same side. An attacking candidate has to be careful about his opponent's core supporters. He runs the risk of alienating them - and they might ultimately refuse to support him after their guy drops out of the race. Romney might find himself in that situation. His attacks on McCain and Huckabee have been as sustained and intense as any this cycle. And there is evidence that this has damaged him with the Huck and Mac factions.

The Pew poll found that Romney's net favorable rating among these voters is not very strong: just +7% among McCain voters, and a whopping -9% among Huckabee voters. Of course, the sample sizes informing these statistics are small - but they are large enough to validate this modest conclusion: Romney is relatively weak among Huckabee and McCain supporters. For comparative purposes: McCain is +30% among Huckabee supporters; Huckabee is +15% among McCain supporters; Giuliani is an eye-popping +69% among McCain supporters, and +33% among Huckabee supporters. [A problem Romney will confront if he wins the GOP nomination: he has a net -12% favorable rating among the general electorate. I'd wager this is also a consequence of the negative tenor of his campaign in recent months.]

Now Jay does not mention this but this not all because of Romney attacks. It is because of people in the conservative press that have been pretty much his suggorates attacking non stop. I think it has backfired.


Anonymous said...

How can any conservative vote for Romney?

He was listed as one of the top ten Republicans in Name Only by Human Events Magazine.

What will he be after the primary?

And would he be another George Bush if he gets elected?

SJ Reidhead said...

You are far more optimistic than I am today.

SJ Reidhead
the Pink Flamingo