Friday, December 16, 2011

Catholics Talk Ron Paul and Iran ( GOP DEBATE )

I might have some thoughts on the big GOP debate last night. It has been my position we have had way too many , but last night's debate was important.

Ron Paul had a good show , but I think many people are right when they say his Iran view is not a vote getter.

The more progressive Vox Nova blog had a post on this morning. See Debating a Nuclear Iran.

Here are my thoughts.

First, I don't think anyone in the GOP envisions a war with Iran. What seems to be the issue is taking out the nuclear related sites. This would of course involve some major air power. It also might involve some quick insertion of forces to make sure they are wiped out. In other words an Iraq like regime change is not something I see most wanting. A good debate can be had if it this limited strike could be contained ,but that is what is being proposed.

Second, a nuclear armed Iran is unthinkable to me. I think many forget or perhaps were not around when the Cold War was hot. If Iran gets a nuclear bomb a arms race will occur in the Middle East. If Iran gets the bomb well here come Saudi and others. If you thought M.A.D. (Mutually Assured Destruction) was a bad idea then prepare to think M.A.D is insane when this finishes up.

Third, a nuclear armed Iran will mean much more of American physical military footprint in the Middle East. One reason I am uneasy with the massive withdrawal from Iraq of U.S. Forces relates to this. Nuclear weapons are political weapon often. However part of that is to make sure you have conventional forces on the ground so they do not become part of the prime offensive plan. Troops and battles give us time before other unthinkable options are considered. This is why the USA had so many troops and assets in Germany and the U.S.S.R had so many assets just miles away.

If you don't like the fact that there is such a heavy military footprint in the area prepare for more. Which by the way will cost money.

Fourth, Israel cannot likely do the job. We know that many Middle Eastern Countries have no objection to us taking out the sites. In fact many are pleading with us to do so. I think the intelligence we have seen indicates that. In fact it appears they will even cooperate with dreaded Israel to do it. I am wary of the idea they can accomplish it. I also am not thrilled if Israel is the one that does it what that means for tensions in the area.

In the end I think there is a considerable likelihood that Obama himself might pull the trigger. It all depends how close they are to reaching their Nuclear Weapon Dreams.

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