Tuesday, January 21, 2014

David Vitter Announces For Governor - Now What

Before I get into this post let me say I am not supporting David Vitter for Governor at this point. I don't dislike Vitter and in fact I have warmed up to him over the years. However at this point I am supporting Republican   Lt Gov Jay Dardenne .

Well David Vitter announced he will be running for Governor this morning. As many journalists that have covered him since the beginning will note he  is perhaps among i the top tier campaigner on the stump politicos Louisiana has seen .

Democrat guru Robert Mann has a post up GOV. DAVID VITTER? SIX QUESTIONS THAT WILL DETERMINE HIS FUTURE . Overall though I disagree with a few parts of it I think it gets a good many points right. The biggest being there are a lot of unknowns at this point. One of the biggest being will New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu jump into the race . Also as Mann points there could be a scenario where Mitch Landrieu 's sister Senator Mary Landrieu might want to run.

I do think Vitter's announcement will make other interested Republicans outside Dardenne think twice about entering the race. Vitter not only has a state wide following , but also has a rather large voter geographical base from where he is from that I expect will help him a good bit.

The key for Vitter I think is getting a Democrat in the primary. He does not want a repeat of what happened in the 5th Congressional District where democrats were the king makers in picking the two GOPERS that made the runoff.

It is hard to imagine in race between Dardenne and Vitter that democrats and especially African Americans Democrats would be pulling the Vitter level in the voting booth .

I disagree the most with Robert Mann's last point about the issue of Vitter's serious sin. This " serious sins" that happened in New Orleans was in the air when Vitter first ran for Senate. Further it was really in the air when Vitter ran for reelection .

Vitter would run into these questions at town halls . From what I understand most folks at these town halls did not seem interested in it much when a citizen brought it up. In fact I think at some point some sort of felt sorry for him . I got a lot of direct mail and mass emails about Vitter ' s serious sin. I don't think I was alone.

We shall see how that issue plays out , but I think it has limited mileage personally .

Finally Mann ask how Vitter will handle the Jindal question. Rightly or wrongly Jindal has often had a revolt on his right .

They view Jindal as wasting a good bit of political capital. We see this as to structural reforms in how the Louisiana State Government operates. In other words they see Jindal's as pretty much putting a band aid on the State's fiscal problems as we lurch from one legislative session to the other.

Vitter's talk of " stability " in his email this morning I think gives us an idea where he is going.

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