Louisiana's Lone Democrat Congressional Seat in Danger ( Melancon Seat)

The Cao victory has everyone talking.

Also a lot of people are talking what Democrat will try to challenge Cao in two years. However as I keep pointing out on several forums no one is talking about the effect of the 2010 Census where the fate of CAO's new district (and the only black majority Congressional District in Louisiana) is uncertain for 2012. That plays into the dynamic too.

IN the end we know one thing Louisiana because of population loss is going to lose a district. The question is who!!!

Well I suspect what we shall see is what we see nationwide. Tee one time that Republicans power brokers and largely black Democrat power brokers have an wonderful alliance. That is where the state's current lone Congressional Democrat Charlie Melancon is finding himself in quite a bit of danger. Cao victory and perhaps even more important the Fleming victory have come together with the approaching Census to create a perfect storm for the Third Congressional District.

A prof at LSU-S Prof and Political analyst has a good short post on how this is likely to go down at Cao win puts another nail into Melancon's House coffin

Good analysis of what is likely to go down

This is also good news if you are from North Louisiana. Though it would not have been fair there surely would have been a move to make North Louisiana one huge ( and very unmangeable ) Congressional District. The election of Fleming combined with a Republican Governor have made that fight less likely to happen. Though I expect the 4th to look at tad different (perhaps sneaking closer to Lake Charles) . While Rodney Alexander's largely North Louisiana District will be refashioned a tad too to make up for largely pockets of North Louisiana population loss that not as severe as in South still has to be made up for. IT looks like more and more the THIRD shall be divided up to accomplish all these goals