Monday, August 30, 2010

Louisiana Democrat Primary Results Show Melancon In Big Trouble

Saturday night's Democrat primary vote shows big trouble for Melancon. While while the media was focused on how much Vitter Protest vote in the GOP primary there would be , it appears they should have been focused elsewhere.

Vitter had two opponents. The most formidable was Traylor that from North East Louisiana who had at least once managed to be elected the Louisiana Supreme Court race. Because of Traylor's own problems his race quickly went nowhere. Still he had some name recognition.

Melancon on the other hand had some problems that show up. He like Vitter had two unknowns running against him the primary. In fact they were much more unknown than Vitter's opponent.

He won with just 71% percent of the vote. From time the early voting time period results were released till almost the end of the night his two opponents were getting around 32 percent of the vote. It was only till Orleans came in that Melancon was able to to get their overall total under 30 percent.

In other words outside areas with a high black population or areas out his own district he shows considerable weakness. As this parish by parish breakdown shows.

These voters were in large part Democrats (with some Independents) voters who went out of their way to go out an vote a protest voter against Melancon for various reasons. No doubt these Democrats and Independents are very motivated voters that will be voting for Vitter come November

As can be seen above Melancon did got get the majority of primary voters in five North Louisiana Parishes. In many of the North Louisiana parishes where he did get the majority he struggled.

What looms large on the map above is the 4th Congressional District and 5th Congressional Districts in North Louisiana.

In November there will be Congressional General election with Democrat Melville and Republican Fleming. The problem is this race is seen as a very safe seat for Fleming It is doubtful the the National Democrat Party and other groups will be pouring money into this race. This is the last thing Melanchon needs in an area where he is showing already considerable weakness.

Melacon's biggest problem is the 5th Congressional District. Republican Rodney Alexander has now won this district by default since no Democrat is running. Alexander will face a little-known independent in the Nov. 2 general .Again as you can see this is the other big area that he is showing considerable weakness. Republican voters here look highly motivated Democrat voters not so much. Further this is a district that has some considerable number of black voters in places. This district is 33.9% black. So if Charlie is going to target Democrats that are likely voters for him then he will have to do it with little help.

Part of Melacon's problem can be seen in the important parish of Calcasieu in the Southwest part of the State. This parish because of it's demos is seen as a bell weather for State wide election. Here Charlies managed to get over 60 percents but his two opponents got some decent numbers. That is Chauvin 754, Deaton 592, to Melachon's 2,308. In this district where Calcasieu is located there will be no contested Congressional race either with the Republican winning by default.

Which brings us to Orleans that had a contested Democrat primary. Here the numbers for Melanchon look like what he would want and needs statewide among Democrat voters.

The problem is for Melancon and also that gives great hope for Republican Cao is the dismal turnout. Turnout despite the well run political machines down this Congressional District was only 7.57 percent of that potential electorate . To further complicate matters it appears that the Democrat might have potential developing scandals of his own to deal with.

No doubt the The Democrats will pour money into this District. Having Cao win re election here would be the embarrassment of the night for Democrats nationwide. So he is helped there a tad. Still it appears Charlies and the Louisiana Democrat party is going to have more resources into NOLA than they wished they had too.

What further must give Melancon some pause are that these are results that came after a rather negative media blitz against Vitter. So he will have to decide if perhaps another theme might be necessary to win.

Of course on election day there will be a LT Governors race at the top of the ballot. However I doubt that will drive democrat turnout. Further no doubt there will

No comments: