McCain Gaining Ground and Thoughts On Last Nights Debates

Polls-

Ok I hope now for the thrid day in a row polls showing McCain gaining ground will calm many conservative that wish to proclaim it is all over. It seems people in the excitement of race go to stellar highs or stellar lows. This repeats every election cycle and it seems no one learns from their mistakes

Today's The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll Obama/Biden 45% McCain/Palin 44% Undec 9% .

Obama's lead in Rasmussen was 8 percent, now it's 6 percent; Obama's lead in Zogby was 3 percent, now it's 2 percent; Obama's lead in the Hotline was 2 percent and now it's 1 percent; in the Battleground poll Obama's lead has shrunk from 7 percent to 4 percent.

Now I still think the Hotline Poll is making a mistake of putting too many Self ID Dems in there For instance Party breakdown is Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I. I think at the very least in the worst case scenario History making scenario that is a point to high for Dems but it is better than we are seeing in other polls .

Let me expand on that thought for a second. I am not one to bash polls but the party ID and having such a wide disparity between Republicans and Democrats ( Who will show up) is utter nonsense

If this party ID is off McCain is tied or in fact in the lead

Lets take a recent VA polls that showed Obama in the lead in VA .

For example, the Survey USA poll has 39% Democrats, 30% Republicans and 25% Independents.

The Suffolk poll has 45% Democrats, 31% Republicans and 24% Independents/Unaffiliated voters.

Neither poll is close to historic party ID in Virgina:

The 2004 electorate was 39% Republican, 35% Democrat, and 26% Independent. This changed little in 2006, when the Allen-Webb electorate was 39% Republican, 36% Democratic, and 26% Independents. D

Does anyone in their right mind think that in 2006 where the GOP brand was at its lowest that now the Freaking election will break 45 Percent Democrat, 31 Percent Republican on Election Day in VA? Let us recall the dynamics of the 2006 VA election which would be Obama dream and Webb barely won.

Obama is no Jim Webb to say the least. Once I see Obama polling Webb numbers in Southern VA I might change my tune.

BUT BUT BUT Opinionated Catholic that is just VA you might say.

Please examine how Party ID has always been overestimated the past several election cycles LINK nationwide

I mean even the latest CBS poll that Shows McCain has made up major ground against Obama has 8 percent more Democrats than Republicans. Now to believe that poll one would have to believe that the electorate would be 36.5 percent Democrat, 28.3 percent Republican, and 35 percent Independent, as in CBS' unweighted sample A person that does this for a living wisely pointed out
quote:

In 1988, Democrats had a three-point party ID advantage over Republicans (38-35). In 1992, Democrats still had a three-point party ID advantage over Republicans (38-35). In 1996, that advantage increased to four - a shift of one point (39-35). In 2000, Democrats were steady, up by four (39-35), and in 2004 they dropped to even (37-37). During presidential years, over the last five presidential elections, the biggest party ID gap was four points, and the greatest swing was four points as well. Arguments can certainly be made that in this environment, Democrats should be expected to have a huge partisan shift in their favor. But note that in 2006, when Democrats clearly found enormous success at the ballot box, that the advantage in party ID was only three points (38-35). Polls leading up to the election showed party ID gaps as big as eleven points (Newsweek's poll on Oct 5-6, 2006), rarely showing party ID gaps of less than +5 for the Democrats.

Are people seeing the problems here.

When you examine that with the great fundraising for the GOP, great crowds for McCain and Palin, and now what appears to be a huge early voting bust for the Obama campaign in Ohio that something is amiss

AJ over at the Strata sphere has done a great series of post on this. See Polls May Be Exaggerating Party Affiliation and More Poll Posting - Obama May Be In Real Trouble If Polls Weight Samples Wrong

AJ makes the good point that we are not sampling undecided by Policy Preference. AJ said

According to the WSJ that looked at this of Lib-Con-Mod, it is split 23-37-36 - almost the REVERSE of the party ID break down. That means if you re-run the polls using policy preference as the weighting factor you could see the polls almost flip 180°! Democrats are up by 7%, but Cons are up by 14% - twice the advantage!

In the undecided poll. the Party ID view undecideds are split equally between Dem-Rep-Ind at 28-26-43. This would lead one to allocate undecideds or leaners basically down the middle between Obama and McCain since the difference left and right is a statistically insignificant 2%. But in the policy world view the picture is different. The Lib-Con-Mod mix is heavily tilted away from Obama’s base with 18-32-47.

So relax for goodness sake.

Unless you think there has been a shift that we have never seen since 1974 these are pollyanna numbers .

These race looks very 2004 to me and not 1996

Debate-

It appears McCain supporters are more positive this mornng than they one were last night. I think the "Base" needs to calm down. McCAIN NEEDED TO DO A KNOCKOUT I hear. Knockouts rarely happen in debates and they are the stuff of movies. That is even more the case when we get to this level. Debates are theatre and most people are trained not to have a Gerald Ford moment. That is they just want to get out there unscathed.

I thought McCain did pretty good. I do agree that I am getting pretty tired that subject McCain could score big points on are not being brought up. See the Anchorsess's post on this at Final Thought: Brokaw hurt both men