McCain ,THe Polls, and Why The Bradley Effect Might Not Be All About Race

I will not do a listing of polls but I like the trend. I am also of the mind that when looking at the polls there are two universes. Those polls that have in their weight models way way way to many self ID Dems and too few few few Self ID Republicans in their election breakout predictions. Then there are polls that show a much more realistic election day breakdown!!!

From what I ma seeing there is breaking of "undecideds" toward McCain. It will be very close.

Plus to be honest I am wary of polling this election. This race is different and I think we saw that in the Dem Primary where the polls in many cases were way way off. Especially in some key battlegrounds.

Which brings us to the Bradley Effect that is so discussed. The Bradley effect DOES not measure racist voters but is something that measures voters that don't don't want to be viewed as racist.

Now I have never been a huge believer in this. Still with the tone of this election I believe it could account for one or 2 percent. We shall know soon.

HOWEVER-

I just keep seeing comments on various political boards that seem of genuine questioning and not knowing what is up.

That is the issues of Bumper stickers and Signs. Yes I know yard signs are not a great indicator of election success. However in many areas people are commenting that compared to 2004 there are hardly no yard signs this year .Why is that?

Now one could say this is the Bradley effect in some ways. However I keep noticing that this is occurring in very Pro- Union States. The Unions want Obama in because he will support the new law that will basically get rid of the secret ballot.

This is a issue that is really not getting the play it should in the media but I think it is pretty hot. So when you see polling in Union States that might be something to keep in mind. That is a reluctance of Union Households to broadcast who they are voting for to some yahoo that just calls them up.

So if Obama on election night it appears seriously over polled many will scream BRADELY EFFECT. I am not so sure.