Why Are The National Polls and THe States Polls Different In the McCain / Obama Race

The Polls last week sort of had me stumped. Most National polls (not all) had Obama taking a lead of 4 to 5 points. However we were really not seeing this in individual polls. Especially Battleground States polls. On the whole they show a very dead even race. Plus certain demographic shifts that even the national polls were showing seemed not to influencing the overall numbers. I have been waiting all week for the State polls to show what the national polls are and it has not happened.

AJ has thoughts at Those Wild Polls.

I belive thr internal polling for McCain must show something good. AJ in this point also points out something interesting. The McCain camp thinks California could be in PLAY!!! See Is California In Play?


But Republicans aren’t giving up on California. California Republican Party chief operating officer Bill Christiansen said some private polls put the two candidates within five points of each other, and the McCain campaign is staffing 50 offices throughout the state. Four years ago, the Bush-Cheney campaign barely had a presence in California, and spent little money. “But we are fully funded this time,” Christiansen said, declining to give a figure.
The state GOP is making 125,000 voter contacts every weekend, “which blows the doors off of what we were doing four years ago,” said Christiansen. “Sarah Palin has put a shot of energy into this race.”

That is pretty incredible. McCain right now is not hurting for money as much as people thought but having 50 full staffed Offices in California is a huge expenditure of resources. Please note this is the same week when Obama is having to close field offices and writing off states such as Georgia , North Dakota, Montana, etc.

Now things are not all rosy for McCain either. Jay Cost who I very much respect has post up called Does McCain Have a Rural Problem? which appears to be AG issue problem.

Plus these polls in Colorado never seem to look great for McCain. With a tight apparent Race in Virginia that is not good. If we lose either then we have to make it up elsewhere.

It will be a very tight race