Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Opinionated Catholic Looks at New Hampshire Election Aftermath

Good Night For Huckabee(my guy) I thought. More on him as I look at the Republicans later. First the democrats.

Needless to say big night for Hillary Clinton. No doubt. The Obama express has been slowed down. However this is what I find intriguing. How the media that gives us so many polls were wrong. Now it seems the media and the pundits are wanting to quickly move on without pondering this. The answers are we are told

(1) She had better get out the vote election day organization
(2) She found her voice
(3) She used the media better

Now all of this I suspect is true. I do think her final totals were helped by perhaps a lot of early voters that voted pre-election. However none of the above accounts that polls showing Obama almost with a double figures lead being so wrong. Polls do pick up trends late. How I am not sure it accounts for such bad polling. The organization is key. However are these polls not surveying "Likely" voters. Hmmm so I hope this issue is explored a tad more.

Hillary has success. I think she wins Nevada and then will join the Republicans in an all out War in that state as each party goes at it among themselves. The issue in South Carolina is where does the black vote go? Does it stay with Clinton or do we sart to see defections.

Republicans-
Good night for Huckabee. He was 5th and in some polls 6th place 3 weeks ago. A good solid 3rd for a man that was not able to spend resources in that State. Michigan will indeed be interesting.

Major News Story is Romney. Sorry most of the state lives in Southern New Hampshire that is served by Boston media markets. That should have and I think neutralized the McCain machine factor that he had from past campaigns. Thus it became a much more equal playing field I can not see how this is a good night for Romney. If he loses Michigan I think his campaign is dead. Because it likely be a McCain/Huckabee Race then. I don't see where Romney starts to pick up steam. or where he can another last stand on Super Tueday

What is up with Rudy's numbers? I realize he had not done a ton of campaigning there but I would think his numbers should have been better than they were. Rudy is still the mystery. He seems to be gambling a lot on Florida in which I have never understood the logic of.

Storylines of the night
Hillary Saved
Polls are wrong and everyone seems to want to move from that topic and quick
McCain supplies the second nail in the coffin of the Romney Campaign that Huckabee put the first one in. Michigan will be the I have to think a must win for Romney. If not he cannot be revived

200 comments:

William Eunice said...

American Papist puts together some interesting numbers

Roman Catholics (the largest religious group among New Hampshire Democrats, with 36% of voters in that primary), overwhelmingly chose Clinton (43%) over Obama (28%)

exit-polling for the Republican primary (from CNN) reveals that McCain and Romney each received 38% of the vote from Catholic republicans. Guiliani had 8%, Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee tied with 7%.

While I am pleased at the lack of support for Guiliani, I am perplexed at the lack of support for Huckabee and Paul amongst Republican Catholics in NH.

James H said...

I might address this later. I would not read too much into it.

New Hampshire to Huckabee was what Iowa was to McCain. Neither had the resources to compete there fully. In a state of retail politcs that is huge.

Huckabee was written off just 4 weeks ago so the fact that Huckabee did not recieve mass Catholic support does not concern me that much.

I think as to the Catholic vote you had several dynamics. One is Catholics rewarding people that campaigned there and thus making NH important. More Moderate to LIberal Catholics supporting Romeny and more Conserative Catholics to supporting McCain because of past associations and to stop Romeny in NH

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