I am Going Out On A Limb- Blanche Lincoln Will Win Dem Primary Tonight

I agree with Jim Geraghty here. See Is Blanche Lincoln in as Much Trouble as the Kos/R2000 Poll Suggests?

I know the CW is she is in real trouble and yes she is endangered. But I am wondering where Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is picking up the votes. As Geraghty mentions I can't imagine a lot of people that voted for the Conservative democrat in that race (Morrison ) will switch to Halter.

It seemed the one area that Lincoln had some trouble with was with the black vote. How many Dem races are in runoffs tonight in heavily black counties to gin up that turnout for Halter?

Now all politics is local and of course there are no doubt many local issues that are going under the radar for those of us outside Arkansas. But I live pretty close to ARKY and I have not sensed a big change in the last few weeks. Should be a fun race to watch tonight.

Update-
The only reason I could think that Morrison voters would vote for Halter would be a strategic choice. That is their view(right or wrong) the GOP guy and more conservative would have a easier path of beating the "Liberal" Halter than the "moderate" Lincoln. However do voters in vast numbers actually do this line of thinking on a consistent basis?