Democrats Facing Political Armageddon In VA Gov Race (My Two Cents)

The media has finally decided they can't ignore the disaster that is playing out in the Virgina Governors race.

Despite all attempts of the Washington Post to make out Republican McDonnell out to be some scary Catholic Theocrat that worships Pat Robinson it looks like he is heading for a major victory. The press attention was of course helped by the Obama's jaw dropping stupidity of shifting blame a week before the election.

AJ has a great post on the current state of the race with a look at the polls. See GOP Crush In VA, Dems Way Off Track

A few observations-

First this is a major Pro-Life Pick Up and a Catholic Gov Pick Up at that. The Catholic part is important because it will I believe be a boost to Catholic Conservatives that have felt demoralized. Especially after the Notre Dame/ Obama Fiasco. The fact that the Washington Post tried to make his Faith a issue will make the victory so much sweeter.

Second, Be sure to watch the African American vote. I think the latest polls have got people really talking on this. It is not just a issue of if Black Democrats will show up but if the GOP might get a nice chuck of them. If a significant above average percentage of the Black vote goes to the GOP does this mean :

(1) they think the Democrat was such a idiot they are just voting GOP or
(2) Has the election of a African American President in a way has caused more African American to now consider a GOP person. Could this be indications of a nation wide trend?

Third, I doubt on Obama's election night few VA democrats could envision Hope and Change being a loss in the liberal bastions of Northern VA not even a year later..

It is of course always a tad foolish to nationalize elections like these in our minds without care. There is indeed a pesky transportation issue up in Northern VA that is hot and I don't understand it enough to comment on. Still significant losses among DEM voters and Dem leading independents if they occur will show a disapproval of the President in some regards. Democrat Deeds has run a bad campaign but it was not that bad.

Next the big issue is coat tails in the down the ballot races. We are talking courts , state wide offices, and the House of Delegates. All this is huge because of the elephant in the room. That is upcoming census and Congressional redistricting. A GOP win here and in the worse case scenario for the dems in New Jersey the same night will have major census implications.

Lastly, I think the Democrats and the GOP will be looking at the effect of the NRA endorsement for the GOP guy in this race. Northern VA while being more liberal has become more pro-second amendment over the years. A trend we have seen nationwide and seen in the latest Supreme Court Case where I think the Court was sensing the political winds changing. I am hoping in that in the exit polls some question is asked about the whole gun issue so we have a more accurate picture of what feelings are as to that issue.