According to a pretty good Louisiana political reporter.
A few observations.
What is not mentioned in the article is that Melancon might be considering a run because his District is likely not going to be existing after the next Census. Most proposed maps that are circulating show his District being parts of the surrounding ones. I find it very doubtful that he could win in any of those.
So Melachon might see this as his main chance to continue his political career.
I think Vitter is pretty strong all things considering. In fact I would suspect that Vitter would pick up a good number of votes in Melancon's district which is a blue dog democrat Bayou Cajun district that is fairly conservative.
Further this is State that on the whole is pretty anti Obama. The President has done himself no favors by moves against the energy industry. Further on the whole it does not appear that the Democrat Administration or Congress seems to care much about the Coastal Erosion problems or the ever increasing dead zone off the Coast. If I was the Obama administration I would be finding major funds for these projects to give him some cover.
Despite everything that Vitter has had happened he seems to still have substantial support. Despise the sex scandal it looks like his support among religious and social conservatives is solid. He angered so by supporting Rudy for the GOP nomination but it appears to me that most has been forgiven an there has been no long term consequences.
Vitter is helped by a pretty competent staff in the ground in Louisiana too. From personal experience his North Louisiana staff is excellent. Holding these North Louisiana Parishes will be critical for Vitter and I think at this point he will do quite well with them. If he keeps North Louisiana he is likely to keep the very conservative Lafayette Parish. I would not expect Vitter to have substantial losses in the other Republican bastions surrounding areas around New Orleans that is his natural base.
One thing the GOP has to do is too step in and stop the silly feud between the Jindal and Vitter staffs. This is getting beyond counterproductive. Also from where I sit this is mainly a Jindal Staff problem. Time to grow up.
Melachon to win (or for any democrat for that matter) is going to have to make a strong case that keeping a filibuster proof Senate for all practical purposes is a good thing for Louisiana. How he makes this case to the people of South Louisiana that are not pleased with bans on further off shore drilling bans and other matters will be one tough task.
Vitter has soft spots that of course can be attacked. However he is far less vulnerable than many in the pundit press outside Louisiana portray.
James,
ReplyDeleteI don't live in Charlie Melancon's district; so I must admit that I'm not up-to-speed on how he stands on all the issues.
Having said that, from what I do know, it seems to me that Charlie Melancon is a Democrat that I could support. In fact, based on what I know, I kinda like him.
But, I also really like Vitter. I am with him about 98% on the politics.
About the sex scandal: I don't know if I'll explain this well; so, let me be clear up front -- his actions in the sex scandal he caused need to be condemned. He violated a Sacrament and a Sacred Oath.
(Here's the tricky part) Vitter offered sincere contrition for his actions to his wife, his family, his constituents, and, most importantly, to God. (Vitter admitted that he confessed his sin in the Sacrament of Reconcilliation.)
If God and his wife can forgive his sin, then I can, too.
All things taken together, I think it's a shame that these two will have to face each other. We could use both of them in Congress.
I pretty much agree. Charlie is the typ of Chris JOhn , Jimmy Haynes, and sort of Billy Tauzin Democrat(when he was one) that fits well with Louisiana.
ReplyDeleteI think he would be viewed more to the right than Landrieu.
I just think he is going to have a tough time winning
I met him and his campaign team at a fall fair at St. Theresa of Avilia in Gonzales. I hate to be unfair, but my impression was that he is a throwback to the Huey Long era. Interested in furthering his career. Not a good candidate. Functionally though, one could do worse. At least he has in the past been somewhat moderate "blue dog" but his constituancy will change as he seeks statewide appeal and I fear the "blue dog" will be "off the chain" and much more liberal. No, Louisiana needs at least one conservative senator.
ReplyDelete