McCain SHowing Real Movement in the Polls!!!

First before we lookat three major polls ( I am still waiting for Gallup)

I keep preaching two things to every McCain supporter the couple of weeks.

(1) Be wary of the polls
(2) Poll Dynamics will show quite a tightening race

We are seeing that. Now I just don't bash polls. But some of these polls are silly. Again it is the absurd party weight (IE the turnout projected for Election day) that is screwing things up in so many polls. I have yet to here on theory how any of these party weights could be right. Hill Buzz had a wonderful post (Scroll down to update 2 how apply a proper party weight changes the result in a huge fashion).

PARTISAN BREAKDOWNLet me start with the Obama landslide polls — the most recent examples being a Newsweek poll released on October 11 showing an 11-point lead for Senator Obama and an ABC News/Washington Post Poll released on October 12 showing a similar 10-point lead. No doubt such polls cause great concern among McCain supporters — but should they?

As with all polls, the best data comes from what we political diehards call “the internals” or the results below the line that measure candidate support among key demographic groups or public support for candidates on certain issues (the economy, the war, etc).……The problem is: In no recent election has the Democratic Party (or any party) enjoyed such an advantage among the American electorate.

In 2004, exit polling data found the electorate to be 37 percent D, 37 percent R and 26 percent I.

In the 2006 midterm elections for the House of Representatives the electorate was 38 percent D, 36 percent R, and 26 percent I.

In 1996 and 2000, Democrats enjoyed a 4-point edge over Republicans. Given this history, it seems hard to believe that the Democrats have suddenly leapt to a 13-point partisan advantage. If one takes the Newsweek results and re-weights them to reflect a more realistic 4 point partisan advantage for Democrats the results change significantly. As can be seen in the following table, Obama’s 11-point lead shrinks to 4.

Much more at the link. That this isnt' Republican or McCain hackery but common sense.

So let us look at todays polls

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 49% McCain 44%

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Three Obama 45% McCain 42%

Rasmussen Obama 50% McCain 46%

Please note even on the Rasmussen poll the party weights are in fantasy land

For polling data released during the week of October 12-18, 2008, the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 39.3% Democratic, 33.0% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated.

A Seven point gap? I don't think so

GW/Battleground Poll: O-50%, M-44% (M +2) This is a 2-point improvement for McCain since yesterday and a 7-point improvement for McCain since Tuesday