Monday, May 5, 2008

Repeat After Me - Obama is Not in Trouble!!

Mickey Kaus often comments on "cocooning" both as to politicians and journalist.

He states in a Friday entry:
Minister's Comments Hold Little Sway in Indianapolis Enclave":
On the one hand there's the New York Times report:


[N]o one interviewed here said that Mr. Wright had affected how they or anyone they knew would vote.

On the other hand, there are the actual polls, showing Obama tanking. Who you gonna believe? ... P.S.: A staple of cocooning journalism is the quickie poll showing that "Voters Say They Aren't Troubled by X," with X being an issue the polltakers don't want voters to be troubled by. Typically, these stories 1) ignore the tendency of voters to lie to pollsters, especially when it comes to admitting they might be influenced by thoughts of the sort that they suspect polltakers don't approve of; and 2) even if everyone's telling the truth, if only 10% of voters say they will vote against a candidate because of X--while fully 90% of the voters say they are untroubled--that means the candidate has been badly damaged by X.

In most races a candidate can't afford to lose 10% of the vote on a single issue. ... In today's story, of course, the Times strikes a blow for transparency and cost-efficiency, dispensing with the expensive, scientific-sounding claptrap of polling and cutting right to the soothing BS, interviewing a handful of upscale Indianapolis shoppers who duly deny they would be influenced by the Wright flap (but who knows what those "less cosmopolitan" Hoosiers down South will do). ... 10:40 A.M.

He is right about the voters and their reaction to questions like that. That is one reason we see OBAMA over polling so much. Despite the fact that people with huge African American Support often under poll because it more difficult to poll the African American Community. That means with Obama's built in advantage people are still much more concerned than they are letting on!!!

I had a conversation with my liberal democrat lawyer friend over Happy Hour last week. He is a huge Obama supporter but is in big denial or as Kaus would put it in the comfort of the Cocoon. He said "James, Obama will have more pledged delegates than Hillary so he wins" The problem is that is not the rule how you win!!!

Obama must stop Hillary in either Indiana, Kentucky, or West Virginia if he wants to win. Needless to say if Obama loses North Carolina(something I think unlikely) then there shall be such a tidal change in political predictions it shall be breathtaking. Note I am saying this as a Republican that wants Obama to win because I fear Hillary a lot more than Obama in a election fight

What if Hillary beats Obama by 20 or more points in WV. A state that the dems want back in a big way? A state that at the very least they want Republicans to have to devote huge scarce resources too. I don' think Obama wants people to even have to engage that thought but they shall unless he can stop her.

As for the Superdelgates why should they choose now? As a Louisiana Republican I don't want them to choose. What is in it for us? I mean forget about party but should not Louisiana Superdelgates wait until the last possible moment so our state can benefit.

For instance Mary Landrieu might say-" Ok Hillary use whatever influence you got on the Armed Forces Committee to make sure Barksdale Air Force Base get that incredible new Cyber Command that half the country wants along with its 30,000 jobs".

Would not Ray Nagin have even more cause to wait it out.

Why should not Congressman Charlie Melancon make his intention known when we need every Federal Dollar we can get to combat Coastal Erosion? If I was him I would be going "show me some Coastal restoration love Obama and Hillary".

Is this not being duplicated all over the country?

2 comments:

  1. ODE TO OBAMA
    by Publius II

    There once was a man named Obama
    His life began with drama
    An African Muslim father
    An eccentric white mama

    Obama’s white grandparents
    They gave him a charmed life
    Raised on the beaches of Hawaii
    Far from ghetto strife

    He went to private schools
    Fourteen thousand dollars a year
    Working-class white folks
    They were nowhere near

    He attended Columbia
    Then Harvard Law
    A very soft and liberal upbringing
    Something Americans eventually saw

    He then went to Chicago
    Nation of Islam, Farrakhan, Black Panthers and Jackson
    The only friends he made
    All from the extreme left-wing faction

    He joined a radical church
    His Pastor downright insane
    Blacks and whites, he said
    Think with different parts of their brain

    His church praised a man named Cone
    With hateful opinions he was filled
    He said white people were “the devil”
    And Gods who love whites must be killed

    Obama first ran for State Senate
    With permission from Chicago’s Marxist King
    A domestic terrorist named Ayers
    Obama kissed his ring

    He wrote a book called “Dreams From My Father”
    From start to finish a racist rant
    After people finally read it
    They said: “Obama, no we can’t”

    He wrote how he rejected his mother’s race
    And that Malcolm X was a hero
    People had a clear warning
    Obama was a dangerous zero

    He was then elected to the U.S. Senate
    Obama’s ego grew very bold
    He barely served a year
    I will run for President was the story he told

    He spent millions to stage rallies
    The crowds would yell and cheer
    But then it all fizzled out
    Typical white folks, he said, cling to religion, guns and beer

    His wife said America was mean
    She was never really proud
    Her Black Separatist thesis at Princeton
    Became a campaign cloud

    People said he was a Muslim
    His supporters scoffed and jeered
    Then his Black Liberation Church was exposed
    And Obama’s ugly head was reared

    He tried to recover in a speech on race
    The left-wing media offered raves
    But he said white folks had an “untrained ear”
    And abolitionists in Pennsylvania rolled over in their graves

    He claimed to be a uniter
    He would bring people together all at once
    But after his speech in Philadelphia
    He proved to be a demographic dunce

    He tried once more to persuade whites
    But his bowling was a mess
    He rolled a 37
    Like a 5-year-old girl in a dress

    He then played basketball
    He drove the ball to the rack
    But when all was said and done
    He nearly had a heart attack

    He said damn those white voters
    Their Mutual Funds I will tax
    I’ll double the capital gains rate
    Like an old-school Liberal hack

    He opposed a gas tax holiday
    He said it wasn’t a winner
    $40 wasn’t much he said
    Just the weekly budget for the average family’s dinner

    He wouldn’t cover his heart
    As the National Anthem played
    It’s a meaningless gesture he said
    But Americans felt betrayed

    He wouldn’t wear a flag pin
    It was against his One World view
    It doesn’t matter he said
    And the American people stewed

    He first called terrorist Ayers his friend
    Then said this man he didn’t really know
    More deceit and cover-ups
    Obama’s lies began to grow

    Farrakhan, Jackson and Sharpton
    Three of Obama’s greatest fans
    He tried hiding them in the closet
    So not to further offend the white man

    Then came his anti-American Pastor
    Obama’s mentor for 20 years
    He preened, shucked and jived
    White people rose up and sneered

    NBC and the New York Times
    They tried each day to save Obama’s campaign
    But real Americans said “FU”
    And Obama spiraled down the drain

    His name was Barrack Hussein Obama
    Running for a second Jimmy Carter term
    Weak on National Security
    A little, pacifist worm

    The radical left-wing Democrats
    A Presidential race lost once again
    Is it really a surprise
    They’ve lost 7 of the last 10?

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