Thanks Louisiana!!!!!
Ok Here are the Louisiana Parish by Parish Results from the Sec of State and my observations.
Final Results of the top 4
Huckabee 69,665
McCain 67,609
Paul- 8,595
Romney- 10,232
A few observations. I really think it is annoying that Louisiana is being spinned as an anti McCain message rather than a Pro-Huckabee message.
Looking at the absentee vote, I have trouble seeing that the majority of Huck voters were "anti Mccain" or wanting to send that message. It is a slight slam that serves not only to bash McCain but very well slams Huck.
If there was a protest vote it is most likely to be found in the roughly 8000 people that actually voted for Romney on election day itsellf.
General observations are that McCain and Huckabee had disadvantages and advantages that in effect could be seem to have cancel themselves out -For instance McCain had the GOP machine(for what is worth and In Louisiana it is not worth much) while Huckabee had the border state effect that helped neutralize that to some effect in the North. IE Huckabee does well in Western Tenn, Eastern Oklahoma, Southern Missouri so he has good number in North Louisiana .
The state tends to go Huckabee friendly. If Huckabee had campaigned here he would have got over 50 percent. This is shown in the Southern Parishes were the differences between the two were not very much in many Parishes . I do think we had defections from the McCain camp. So on the flip side if McCain had campaigned down here he might have not got over 50 percent but he would have won by starving off defections.
One Huge advantage McCain was the early vote. This was partly because Huckabee was not seen as viable during this early voting period. However the numbers on early voting are a tad misleading because the Huckabee demographic is not one that really early votes.
Still this racked up some early numbers for McCain that really start to add up. NOTE IN MOST PARISHES MCCAIN LED ROMNEY IN EARLY VOTING INDICATING McCAIN WOULD HAVE BEAT ROMNEY IN LA. There is no reason to believe that Huckabee likely voters were likely Romney voters in huge numbers.
Still the numbers for early voting indicate a structural flaw in Mike's Campaign that must be corrected.
The Totals for early Voting that occured between Jan 26 to Feb 2nd are:
Huckabee 1947
McCain 3705
ROmney 2508
Looking at the early vote it appears that if early voters had the information they had on election day the following Parishes(all in South Louisiana) would have flipped to Mike where it was very close
West baton Rouge
Vermillion
Terrebonne(might not have flipped but would have been very very close like 20 votes)
St Mary
St Charles
St Bernard
Plaquemines
Lafourche(would have been seperated by about 10 or 20 votes perhaps but likely a McCain win)
Evangeline
The Mayors election in Monroe appears to have neutralized so some effect the McCain vote in East Baton Rouge Parish(where part of the machine is located). If not for this Mayors election this race would be razor thin-
This race is not so much about conservative versus moderate or very conservative. The crucial difference is Income!!!! MIKE HUCKABEE has PROBLEMS GETTING RICH and Upper Middle Class FOLKS In Louisiana to some degree. I compared the precinct numbers from the House Race that was on the ballot in Shreveport(North Louisiana Huckabee friendly).. However I am looking at precinct numbers around the State and it appears otherwise.
This was the Carmody/Peacock Race. This is a very conservative Republican district. Both these men running were Republicans. It is a combination of the middle Class and the bluebloods. You can almost figure out the apprasial values of the homes as we look at these precincts.
The CNN exit numbers claim otherwise on this income fight by the way. However looking at some indivdual precinct numbers around the state I have problems with the conclusions they draw.
I was impressed overall with the Governor's numbers in the South. In particular Lafayette Parish that I always watch with much interest as to get the feel for the conservative temperament of the State
The perfect Bellweather Parish of the state is still Calcasieu Parish. I think this Parish gives a good mood of the state as a whole because it has a the right mix of everything
Those Numbers Huck-3000 Mccain 2,234
Other Parishes of Interest:
Caddo -Huckabee-5515 McCain 3,665(North Louisiana Boders Arkansas Conservative but friendly to Democrats a swing Parish)
Bossier-Huckabee 2684 McCain 1459 (Borders Arkansas very conservative)
Ouachita Huck 4156 Mccain 2872 (Borders Arkansas and these voters are more aware of Arkansas going ons than other North Louisiana urban Centers)
Rapides Huck 1,808 McCain-1,364 (The cross road of the states right in the middle. Huckabee appears to have underperformed among Penetecostals)
Lafayette -Huck 3,053 McCain 3,306 (Queen City of Cajun Louisiana and very conservative. The fact that Huckabee did so well here surprised me and indicates his message took hold)
EBR Huck 10,716 McCain 14,851 (Capital)
Livingston Huck 2,297 McCain 1,248 (Conservative Parish South Louisiana)
Ascension Huck 1,689 McCain- 1,182 (South Louisiana between Baton ROuge and New orleans)
Jefferson(Home of the Machine) Huck 5,218 McCain 8,641 (Next to New Orelans and one the Republican Strongholds of the state and very urban)
St Tammany Huck 5041 McCain 6,299 (Also influenced by New Orleans and huge for GOP) Huckabee numbers I felt here were very decent)
Terrebonne- Huck 982 McCain 1136 (Very Cajun and on the Gulf)
Lafourche Huck 696 McCain-743 (Ditto)
Tangipahoa- Huck 1,628 McCain 1,301 ( A weird mix ofLouisiana Catholic, Baptist, and Mississipi like folks)
The Catholic Vote-
Huckabee appears despite early exit numbers from CNN appears to be doing well with the Catholic Vote as I examine these Parishes. CNN exits show that Huckabee recieved 31 to 32 percent of the Catholic vote. Thus building off his breakthrough we saw in Missouri where he carried a healthy number . In fact his breakthrough is more signifcant here because the border effect has little effect down south. I would like to add that in Catholic heavy rural Parishes ,Mike was close to McCain and beat him in some. The Louisiana Catholic voter in much of Louisiana and these Parishes are very socially conservative but are a tad populist. More than their Northern Neighbors and thus was a Huckabee friendly voter.
Conservative versus Very Conservative versu Moderate versus Liberal Republicans-
I still think these categories that are asked on exit polls are very problematic. The reason is because people's views of those terms so differ from State to State and region to region. In fact I think it differs from urban to rural in the same state.
Here are the Louisiana exits as to Louisiana Republican voters
Very Liberal
(1%)
Somewhat Liberal
(8%)
Moderate
(20%)
Somewhat Conserv.
(27%)
Very Conservative
(44%)
What issues make someone very conservative versus Somewhat Conservative? Who knows. However in Louisiana I suspect it is social issues combined with such issues as guns.
How did Huckabee and McCain do? According to the exits:
Somewhat Liberal
(8%)
22% Huckabee
65% McCain
Moderate
(20%)
28% Huckabee
55% McCain
Somewhat Conserv.
(27%)
45% McCain
42% Huckabee
Very Conservative
(44%)
54% Huckabee
30% McCain
Where did the Romney Vote go? I have read accounts that people think this vote went to Huckabee in vast numbers. I am not so sure. I think we have got a nice chunk of it but I also think a good bit went to McCain. Sadly on the Louisiana exit polls this question was not asked. Again were the Romney vote went I believe differs from region to region.
No comments:
Post a Comment