I thought this was a extremely insightful article by John Ellis. It appears this is making the rounds today out there in blog land. It is long but I shall quote in full. I am going to interact with this piece and my comments shall be in red.
After NH, Race May Break Huckabee's Way
By John Ellis
Iowa was grand for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, but New Hampshire was a bonanza. He cast his bread upon the waters there and though he finished a distant third, it was returned manifold. The one thing that Huckabee cannot afford, at this stage of the race, is head-to-head defeat. He needs at least two "strong" candidates in the field while he puts together the pieces of his Republican proletariat coalition. (Let me say I completely agree with this. In fact this seems the plan of most viable Republicans running for President not from Boston. Thus we saw what happened in the first NH debate. Huckabee does not want to be the THE man yet. We are coming on fast but need time as he says to put together the coalition. If McCain had been defeated in NH I am not sure that would have been a good thing for us at this stage at all. In fact it would have killed us in Michigan. Both McCain and Huckabee need each other in Michigan so they that they can can survive in a viable way in South Carolina).
What New Hampshire delivered last night was a revitalized Sen. John McCain, which makes Michigan a three-way race, which makes Gov. Huckabee's campaign there viable. If ever there was an electorate that is ripe for Gov. Huckabee's mix of economic populism and compassionate Christianity, it's down-trodden Michigan Republican primary voters. ( That is so true too. In fact that is one reason why Huckabee is doing so well in the polls there. That is why he has such a good killer ad that I posted earlier today.) Michigan could be a Huckabee Surprise!! However Romney will fight to the death there. He has no choice)
McCain won there in 2000 with strong support from Independents and he will direct all of his efforts at getting those independents to double down, one last time. Romney will throw everything he has at Michigan, to avoid elimination. Given a McCain surge and a Romney splurge, it's not hard to imagine a three-way split, with Huckabee doing surprisingly well in the collar counties around Detroit and drawing from the well of his base in the western and northwestern counties. Who knows, he might even win Michigan, which would set up South Carolina for a kill.( That is the plan even though we do not have to win there. But a win by Huckabee would shake things up beyond belief. However I am not predicting that at this point)
With McCain now anointed by clueless Washington scribes as the putative front-runner, the Arizona Senator must compete in South Carolina, because he will be expected to and because he has some unfinished business there from the 2000 campaign. Former Senator Fred Thompson has announced that he too will make a stand in South Carolina, although this may be moot by week's end. Romney will compete there, at least with negative television commercials, if only to cut McCain. The net result of all of that will likely be a convincing Huckabee victory, which should solidify Huckabee's lock on the Southern primary states and enable his campaign to poach in border states, in the Midwest and in the Rocky Mountain States.(yep I think that is the plan. In Fact I think the Huckabee campaign see this state as a must win because they see a similar dynamic playing out. Also and I think this is important. As I have said the South Carolina primary puts down Republican rebels it does not support them. Yes I see the irony of this. We shall be treated to no doubt countless hours about "evangelical voters" from the news media that will get them completely wrong. Now here is a danger for Huckabee. He is just coming out of Michigan. He must blend his honest and sincere populism with his conservatism. Now he has already done that. However he must show they are welded to the voters and especially the SC voters that will be watching their sister state to the North with quite a bit of interest. In other words he can't come looking like a Wild Crazed Huey Long out of Michigan and thus win the South Carolina primary. Already I can tell the media and also parts of blogland is underestimating how strong McCain is now there. The war in a very legitimate way is his strength in South Carlina in that primary. There are issues in SC economic wise that work for Huckabee. But he must be on message and not get misinterpreted. Otherwise the Huck Revolution is stamped out by his fellow southerners)
A strong Huckabee showing in Michigan and a convincing win in South Carolina would set up a showdown with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani in Florida, one that Huckabee could afford to lose. Indeed, he might even want to lose it, if only to fatten Giuliani up for his eventual slaughter on the altar of social conservatism. Again, the longer Huckabee faces two "not Huckabee" candidates, all of whom are alien or anathema to the GOP's core Sunbelt/Christian constituencies, the more likely it is he will eventually emerge victorious in the final showdown, wherever that might occur.(Rudy is indeed the wild card. I think there is much legitimate debate if this Rising of Rudy will occur. It very well might. Florida Folks by the way have been voting for weeks in early voting!! What is going on down there? How is Rudy doing getting this important vote in right now? I have no clue despite us having 4 major Cable News channels and the net. I have always thought that Rudy has banked too much on Florida. However if Romney is out then it benefits him at this point. There is a reason why Rudy approves of the McCain/Huckabee dynamic against Romney and watching from the side line. However the main part of this right. The longer as there are two non huckabee people in the race the better for Huck).
And if the results in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary were not bonanza enough, Huckabee got the added boost of Senator Clinton's resurrection from the dead. What better to inflame the passions of Huckabee's more rabid partisans than the renewed prospect of Holy War against the hated Hillary. And what better way could there be to diminish the impact of McCain's revival than a bigger story burying his news. (yeah that is true. In fact the one gets the sense today from places like NRO to conservative blogs and pundits there is a sense of relief she got NH last night. Partly for the reason he cites).
In case you hadn't noticed, click your mouse around this website until you get to National GOP Presidential Polls. Guess who's tied for the lead or leading now in virtually every national poll. He may have finished third in New Hampshire, but he took a large step forward tonight. If he keeps it up, and things keep breaking his way, there will be no one left to stop him. ( Yes but of course the key here is things keep breaking our way which in politics does not happen. Sometimes you have to make your own luck. I really think we are entering perhaps the critical stage with Michigan and South Carolina. I think Romney is in trouble but he is a attack dog. Much will play out this week that very well could decide who will be the next President of the United States).
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