The Myth That Huckabee Voters Are Romney Voters

I keep hearing on the TV that if Huckabee was out his voters will go to Mitt Romney. I have no idea where this coming from. A few days even Dick Morris announced this was gospel a week ago.

The facts that don't seem to back that up. First I think there is two issues.

First the very presence of Huckabee is causing problems for Romney. Romney would very well like to remove him from the equation. The Chicago Tribune made this point very well a few hours ago. They said in part:
Without Huckabee in this contest, Romney may well have won Florida’s primary – look at the small, conservative counties of the rural Panhandle, and look as well at the bigger counties around Pensacola, the homes of military bases and retirees that sided with McCain over Romney.
Huckabee spoiled the conservative vote there for the candidate who is attempting to lay claim to the conservative base of the party, Romney.
In Pensacola, where McCain learned to fly in the Navy, McCain beat Romney by about 15,100 to 13,400 in Escambia County, but Huckabee picked up 9,500 there. In neighboring Santa Rosa, McCain collected 9,600 to Romney’s 7,600 – and Huckabee pulled 6,300.

In Central Florida’s Lake County, home to the greatest evolution debates of modern Florida politics and a school board that has given the Kansas board of education a run for its money, Romney narrowly defeated McCain by about 14,900 to 14,700. Again, Huckabee pulled 9,000.

And from the Gulf Coast end of the swing-voting I-4 corridor to the Atlantic Coast end, where McCain defeated Romney, Huckabee spoiled the day for the former governor of Massachusetts. In the center of that contest, Orange County, which has voted Republican for years but went Democratic in the presidential contest of 2000 for the first time since 1948, McCain narrowly defeated Romney – 29,600 to 29,200. Huckabee: 15,700.Now, Rudy Giuliani’s presence in the race may also have served as a brake on McCain’s potentially greater vote.
But all of this remains a hypothetical matter, for Huckabee is in the race. And Giuliani is not, not after today.
So, looking at what the former governor of Arkansas has collected in the early contests, it’s clear that he will likely continue to play a role that works against the interests of Romney and for the cause of McCain, who may well spell the path to nomination, H-U-C-K-A-B-E-E.

Ever since the “Values Voter Summit'' which the Family Research Council sponsored in Washington last fall, when all of the Republican candidates courted the Christian right in a two-day convention, Romney and Huckabee have been sharing the vote.

Romney won a straw poll there, thanks largely to a concerted campaign of supporters voting online from outside the hall. But Huckabee, who told the home-schoolers and others assembled there that he does not spell G-O-P G-O-D, clearly was the favorite of the hall

And, in the contests that have followed, they have continued to share.
In Iowa, Huckabee collected 46 percent of the voters identifying themselves as evangelical Christians and Romney collected 19 percent. McCain had 10
In New Hampshire, Huckabee had 28, Romney 27, and McCain 28.
In Nevada, Huckabee 22 and Romney 39 – and Romney won there.
In South Carolina, Huckabee 43, McCain 27 and Romney 11.
Which just goes to show: evangelical Christians are willing to share their votes. But, so long as Huckabee is in the race, Romney and McCain will have to share them with him.

That is very true. Huckabee voters are not the cartoon versions that are often portrayed. They give different weights to various concerns.

The problem that Romney has is partly of his own creation. That is downright negative campaign against Huckabee by Romney and more importantly his surrogates. Whether it is the Club for Growth, Rush, Sean, or countless others.

I have noted that not only has John McCain not done this to Huckabee , but his followers have followed that lead. Thus leading to very good feelings toward John McCain by Huckabee supporters. I would go and say at this point that they think of John McCain and his supporters as kindred souls!!! We are all being bashed by the same people so a sort of kinship forms .If you look at blog land it is very rare to see the negative unfair attacks coming from them as to Huckabee. And why not ?because the McCain and Huckabee campaigns have been in dire need of each other since Iowa. Even at this date our active presence for John McCain is a very much more plus factor than a negative. Even if we get 4 or 5 states this coming Tuesday.

So what are the facts.

After Michigan and South Carolina we saw a lot of the damage was done. Jay Cost, who is one of the best at looking at numbers said after Michigan:

Why is it that most primary candidates refuse to run sustained, intense negative campaigns? The answer is that everybody is basically on the same side. An attacking candidate has to be careful about his opponent's core supporters. He runs the risk of alienating them - and they might ultimately refuse to support him after their guy drops out of the race. Romney might find himself in that situation. His attacks on McCain and Huckabee have been as sustained and intense as any this cycle. And there is evidence that this has damaged him with the Mac and Huck factions.

The Pew poll found that Romney's net favorable rating among these voters is not very strong: just +7% among McCain voters, and a whopping -9% among Huckabee voters. Of course, the sample sizes informing these statistics are small - but they are large enough to validate this modest conclusion: Romney is relatively weak among Huckabee and McCain supporters. For comparative purposes: McCain is +30% among Huckabee supporters; Huckabee is +15% among McCain supporters; Giuliani is an eye-popping +69% among McCain supporters, and +33% among Huckabee supporters. [A problem Romney will confront if he wins the GOP nomination: he has a net -12% favorable rating among the general electorate. I'd wager this is also a consequence of the negative tenor of his campaign in recent months.].

Things did not get better at all after South Carolina. Huckabee supporters viewed the attacks on their guy and also McCain as largely unfair. Even if they did not come from the Romney campaign itself but from his supporters.

What did the Florida exits shows us last night?
Giuliani dropping out helps McCain, right? Well, not so fast. According to the exit polls, 49% of those who voted for Rudy today picked Mitt Romney as their 2nd choice while 44% picked McCain. And, interestingly, those who voted for Huckabee overwhelmingly picked McCain as their top 2nd choice over Mitt Romney, 54% to 32%. - TOM BEVAN-

This is the problem that the Romney campaign faces. Huckabee's continued presence has created an effective road block to him in 6 to 7 critical states that Huckabee is strong in. In all these states Huckabee is ahead or tied with McCain with Romney running third.

The above exits how also why it was critical to get Rudy on board fast for McCain. His vote is way more fluid and McCain needs Rudy to bring them home as it were. So McCain views that even if Huckabee is successful on Super Tuesday he still wins!!! The Huckabee campaign sees the elimination of Romeny and his vast amount of money a win too.