Melancon’s Run Against David Vitter Sign of Weakness For Melancon (Updated Link Fixed)

I pretty much agree with this post by this LSUS Poltical Scientist. See Melancon eyes Senate out of weakness, not strength

Bayou Perspective , who is not a Vitter fan, seems to agree and gives his thoughts at Congressman Melancon Jumping To the Senate? Prof. Sadow and Bayou Perspective's Take

Update- I left these comments at Bayou's site

I am supporting Vitter but I think you are right on. There is no way he would be making this run if his Congressional Seat was about to disappear.

On this part:"The best case scenario Congressman Melancon can hope for is that President Obama doesn't come to Louisiana for any fundraisers, Jay Dardenne, Stormy Daniels, and a few other candidates of either substance or controversial standing will jump in the race.....and the hope that Congressman Melancon can raise money and use his blue-dog middle of the road conservative appeal to bring some Vitter votes over to his side"I think it is very very unlikely that Jay will jump into the GOP race.

The whole Stormy Daniels thing is interesting. I am sure David is not thrilled about her entry. But the question is will the Press care. I mean it has some of that been there done that quality to it Further in the end who does she hurt. She and her backers are going to want to get the most bang for their buck. They want this race to go to Nov. So I find it unlikely that see will run in the DEM or GOP Primary.

So she goes third party. I would be very curious too see what some of the third parties are doing as to her. That has been in the news but who does she hurt. In every election there is a protest vote, an anti incumbent vote, and a what the hell vote.What if Stormy gets those votes. That hurts the DEM and helps Vitter.

Two other Thoughts

As to the sex scandal. I think on the whole Louisiana citizens regardless of party are very forgiving of the sins of the flesh.

I mean look at Edwin Edwards. My Conservative Southern Baptist relatives just thought he was great and looked on the sex stuff as no big deal. I can think of other politicos not quite as out there as Edwards they have that attitude with. Plus I think Louisiana voters had already factored that in when he ran. It was not exactly a secret

Second-What I thought was going to cause Vitter far more trouble was his endorsement of RUDY for President.

The most baffling endorsement ever
Rudy - Pro Choice -Vitter Pro-Life
Rudy - Gun Control Problems- Vitter PRO NRA
Rudy For Immigration Reform -Vitter opposes it ( I disagree with Vitter on this)

and so on and so on. I guess Vitter had National Security and Economic Reasons for supporting RUDY.

Regardless that infuriated many activists down here. However since RUDY never got traction it has largely been forgotten and or forgiven by most.